Gains and Losses for NDC and NPP in Ghana’s 2024 Elections

Ghana’s 2024 Elections: A Shift in Political Dynamics with Gains and Losses for NPP and NDC

The 2024 Ghanaian presidential elections have highlighted significant changes in the nation’s political landscape. The governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) engaged in a closely fought contest that exposed shifts in voter loyalty, regional influence, and political priorities. The results reveal steep declines for the NPP in several key regions, while the NDC made measured gains, reshaping Ghana’s electoral map compared to the 2020 elections.

2024 Elections: Ghana’s Electoral Trends: Historical Context

Since the inception of Ghana’s Fourth Republic in 1992, elections have been dominated by the NPP and NDC. The NPP has traditionally excelled in regions like Ashanti and Eastern, which serve as its political strongholds, while the NDC has maintained dominance in the Volta Region and parts of the Northern Belt. Swing regions such as Greater Accra, Central, and Western frequently play decisive roles in election outcomes.

In 2020, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo won with strong support from urban centres and the party’s strongholds. However, the 2024 election, under the leadership of Mahamudu Bawumia, witnessed significant setbacks for the NPP, while John Dramani Mahama of the NDC capitalized on voter dissatisfaction, achieving gains in critical regions.

NPP’s Declines: A Loss of Strongholds and Swing Regions

The NPP suffered major losses in several regions, raising questions about the party’s strategies and voter engagement:

1. Greater Accra Region

A traditional swing region, Greater Accra saw a dramatic decline in NPP votes, dropping by 46% from 1,253,179 in 2020 to 681,535 in 2024. Urban voters increasingly favoured the NDC, signalling dissatisfaction with NPP policies.

2. Central Region

Central recorded a 38% decline in NPP votes as another key swing region, from 613,804 in 2020 to 382,749 in 2024. The region’s shift underscores a growing disconnect between the NPP and voters here.

3. Ashanti Region

The NPP’s traditional stronghold, Ashanti, witnessed a 24% drop in votes, from 1,795,824 to 1,366,800. Though still dominant, the decline signals voter apathy and cracks within the party’s core support base.

Additional declines were recorded in the Volta Region (-44%), Western Region (-37%), and Eastern Region (-34%), illustrating a nationwide erosion of support for the NPP.

NDC’s Gains: Incremental Yet Strategic

The NDC capitalized on the NPP’s shortcomings by consolidating support in its strongholds and making gains in swing regions:

1. Northern Region

The NDC achieved its most significant gain in the Northern Region, with a 11% increase in votes, rising from 476,550 in 2020 to 529,456 in 2024. This underscores the region’s critical role in the NDC’s strategy, bolstered by Mahama’s roots.

2. Ahafo Region

In the Ahafo Region, the NDC saw a 12% rise in support, from 116,485 to 130,106, highlighting its growing influence in smaller but competitive regions.

3. Bono Region

The NDC posted a 16% increase in the Bono Region, with votes climbing from 203,392 in 2020 to 235,681 in 2024. This demonstrates its focus on regaining swing regions.

Smaller gains were also recorded in the Western North (+3%) and Upper West (+2%), contributing to the party’s overall growth.

Challenges for the NDC: Savannah Region

Despite its successes, the NDC encountered setbacks in the Savannah Region, where Mahama’s votes fell by 7%, from 144,244 in 2020 to 134,563 in 2024. As Mahama’s home region, this decline highlights potential dissatisfaction with the NDC’s local leadership or campaign efforts.

2024 Elections: National Overview: Contrasting Fortunes

At the national level, the NPP’s total votes dropped by a staggering 30.8%, falling from 6,730,587 in 2020 to 4,657,304 in 2024. In contrast, the NDC achieved a modest national increase of 1.9%, rising from 6,213,182 to 6,328,397.

The results indicate widespread voter dissatisfaction with the NPP’s governance, particularly in urban areas and swing regions. The NDC’s gains, while significant, remain modest, suggesting room for further improvement in voter outreach and strategy.

Key Takeaways

1. NPP’s Losses: Severe setbacks in Greater Accra (-46%), Volta (-44%), and Central (-38%) regions reflect declining voter trust.
2. NDC’s Gains: Strategic improvements in Northern (+11%), Ahafo (+12%), and Bono (+16%) regions demonstrate focused campaigning.
3. Challenges for Both Parties: The NDC’s decline in Savannah (-7%) and the NPP’s loss of support nationwide signal areas for urgent reassessment.

2024 Elections: Conclusion: A Reshaped Political Landscape

The 2024 elections have redefined Ghana’s political terrain, with the NPP facing unprecedented challenges and the NDC making strategic gains. As Ghana moves forward, the results underscore the importance of addressing voter concerns, strengthening party strategies, and engaging meaningfully with constituents in traditional strongholds and swing regions.

For both parties, the road ahead will require introspection, adaptability, and a commitment to addressing the evolving priorities of the Ghanaian electorate.